|scene from Inside Llewyn Davis,|
courtesy of collider.com
2014 OSCAR PREDICTIONS - August 2013 edition
|courtesy of slate.com|
Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station
Alfonsa Cuarson & Jonas Cuaron - Gravity
David O. Russell & Eric Singer - American Hustle
The Cohen Brothers - Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson - Nebraska
Alternate: Cormac McCarthy - The Counselor
Predicted Winner: Fruitvale Station
Why? The film ran the table at Sundance - Audience and Grand Jury Prize wins. It's still a small film, but I expect they give it something, as long as critical and audience praise stays active. Similar to the arc of Beast of the Southern Wild last year.
Why Not? This category is loaded. A lot of previous nominees and winners.
|courtesy of usatoday.com|
Steve McQueen & John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke & Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
Tracy Letts - August: Osage County
Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street
Steve Coogan & Bill Pope - Philomenia
Alternate: Jason Reitman - Labor Day
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
Why? The book is universally loved and admired and the adaptation is from a well-respected director who has yet to break through. This looks like the film to do it, starting with this award.
Why Not? There are some accomplished filmmakers behind some of the other possible nominees, so it may be a tough go to take an award as a first time nominee here.
|courtesy of 233prime.com|
Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks
John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Benedict Cumberbatch - August: Osage County
Alternate: Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Predicted Winner: Tom Hanks
Why? He's playing Walt Disney. And he's Tom freaking Hanks. And Disney is making a huge push.
Why Not? Though I don't list it below, Hanks is also in the running for his lead performance in Captain Phillips. If he gets nominated for both (unlikely), I doubt he'll win either.
|courtesy of indiewire.com|
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler
Kristen Scott Thomas - Only God Forgives
Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station
Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis
Alternate: Cameron Diaz - The Counselor
Predicted Winner: Meryl Streep
Why? There was talk of her going lead, but she's being pushed as supporting. Seemingly lead performances being pushed as supporting tend to do well, especially when they are given by Meryl Streep.
Why Not? For as many times as Streep has been nominated, she almost never wins. Plus, she has Winfrey on her tail, who is getting rave reviews and rarely acts.
|courtesy of thefilmstage.com|
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Christian Bale - American Hustle
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternate: Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey
Why? Over the past three years, he has steamrolled the industry with brilliant performance after brilliant performance. He physically transformed for this role - Academy loves that stuff.
Why Not? He still has the Wooderson stigma he needs to shake. To many Academy members, he will never be anything but a stoner surfer dude who never wears a shirt.
|courtesy of hindustantimes.com|
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
Amy Adams - American Hustle
Kate Winslet - Labor Day
Alternate: Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett
Why? Woody Allen female characters are typically very well-written and Blanchett delivers her best performance yet as a high class woman whose life falls apart.
Why Not? The last Woody Allen film with a Best Actress winner was Annie Hall in 1977. Plus, the film isn't garnering the across-the-board raves that were expected.
|courtesy of radiotimes.com|
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave *
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
David O. Russell - American Hustle
George Clooney - The Monuments Men
Stephen Frears - Philomenia
Alternate: David Lee Hancock - Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Winner: Steve McQueen
Why? His debut picture, Hunger, is visceral and critically adored. His follow-up, Shame, is a gripping look at sex addiction. Now, he has adored source material, a brilliant cast, and a list of other contenders that, while some are big names, are delivering lighter material.
Why Not? He would be only the third black nominee for Best Director and the first winner. That means more than you think.
|courtesy of soundonsight.org|
12 Years a Slave *
Saving Mr. Banks
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Alternates: The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Foxcatcher
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
Why? I'm drinking the Koolaid. Of all the films I've read about, watched trailers for, and considered, this one feels like the most bulletproof...currently.
Why Not? It's pretty sweeping and the themes aren't really Academy fodder. At least, not for Oscar wins.